21 April 2022

Technical Analysis

Weekly Forex Analysis: EURUSD, GBPNZD & USDCHF

EURUSD

A new ‘major swing low’ created in EURUSD brings with it a greater probability for further downside – here’s how to approach a possible entry opportunity.

  • ·

    Higher timeframe is clearly bearish.

  • ·

    Strength in the Dollar creates more weakness in EURUSD.

  • ·

    Price has broken a previous low (the low of 2022), confirming a new technical swing in the market. Although it hasn’t yet closed below on the daily timeframe, so we may see higher prices first, before the actual continuation down. 

  • ·

    Look for a pullback into the support-turned-resistance zone around the 1.0950 mark, to get a better price.

  • ·

    A break above the 1.1050 level would invalidate the selling opportunity and the market could begin to form a range, signalling indecision, or even move higher. So if that happens, it would be a time to stay out.

  • ·

    The target for the short opportunity is the significant low of 2020.

Source: Exness WebTerminal
Source: Exness WebTerminal
Source: Exness WebTerminal
Source: Exness WebTerminal

GBPNZD

GBPNZD "faked out" the sellers and has created a reversal to the upside – read on to see how to approach a possible continuation buy opportunity.

  • ·

    After a two-month downtrend, the market has hit a significant support level, poking through it and reversing higher. 

  • ·

    Sellers have been trapped and the market has moved sharply against them. 

  • ·

    The previous week’s candle shows momentum to the upside, creating a swing and reversal pattern.

  • ·

    The reversal suggests a continuation move upwards, to fill the large gap in price that was created by the forceful down move a few weeks ago.

  • ·

    Look for a possible entry at a lower price level around the 1.9120 zone, with a first possible upside target of 1.9500 and the second target of 1.9800. 

  • ·

    A break below last week’s low of 1.8850 would invalidate this idea as the swing low would be broken and the market would indicate further downside. 

Source: Exness WebTerminal
Source: Exness WebTerminal
Source: Exness WebTerminal
Source: Exness WebTerminal

USDCHF

Multiple breakout indicators in USDCHF show a bias to the upside. Here’s where to find a potential buy level.

Source: Exness WebTerminal
Source: Exness WebTerminal
Source: Exness WebTerminal
Source: Exness WebTerminal
  • ·

    Any buy opportunity in USDCHF is in line with overall dollar strength and also the EURUSD weakness.

  • ·

    On the very large weekly and monthly candlestick charts, we see higher highs and higher lows created.

  • ·

    There is also the break of a downward trendline

  • ·

    The uptrend implies the market will reach the 2021 high. Just above the 2021 high is also a gap in the price, based on the price action of the daily candles.

  • ·

    Last week closed obviously bullish, so it’s time to look for a better price lower down, then spot any possible buy opportunity. 

  • ·

    We have a zone where the support and resistance level at around 0.9360 meets a lower timeframe trendline, creating a confluence scenario.

  • ·

    If the market fails to go higher and instead takes out 0.9300 and below, the analysis is invalid since the swing on the daily chart won’t have held.


Related articles