Week 13 Exness Economic Calendar Report: Key PMI Releases and Market Sentiment
By Paul Reid
With central banks closely watching inflation and growth, the PMI data will serve as a gauge for economic resilience. Be ready for potential surprises—whether it's Japan's manufacturing struggles, the Eurozone's delicate recovery, or the UK's post-Brexit challenges—all of which could spark massive market moves. Don’t miss out on the chance to navigate this week’s market shifts with precision, as news narratives and financial agendas play a pivotal role in driving volatility. Stay ahead of the curve and seize the market momentum as it unfolds.
March 24: Japan Jibun Bank Manufacturing PMI - 00:30 GMT
The Japan Jibun Bank Manufacturing PMI is one of the key indicators traders rely on to gauge the health of Japan's industrial sector. This week, the market is anticipating a reading just below 50, signaling continued contraction. A print under 50 means that manufacturing activity is shrinking, which is a concerning sign for the Japanese economy, especially given the country’s dependence on exports.
Recent news has pointed to global supply chain disruptions and weakening demand, particularly from China, as contributing factors to Japan’s slowdown. However, the mainstream media narrative often attributes Japan's struggles to "global headwinds" rather than acknowledging the underlying structural issues within Japan's economy itself. While it’s true that the trade environment is challenging, there are deeper domestic concerns, such as Japan’s aging population and low productivity, that don’t always get the spotlight.
If the PMI comes in worse than expected, it could spark a quick spike in USDJPY as traders position themselves for continued weakness in the Japanese economy. A drop below 49 would likely push USDJPY toward 136.00, but if the number surprises positively, we might see a short-term rally in USDJPY, potentially testing 134.50. However, watch out for the media's narrative shift; if Japan’s growth is framed as “resilient” despite global headwinds, it could provide a misleading sense of strength.
March 24: France and Germany HCOB Flash PMI - 08:15-08:30 GMT
The flash PMIs for France and Germany will provide crucial insight into the health of the Eurozone’s largest economies. Traders are expecting moderate growth, with the numbers expected to come in around 50. For Germany, which has struggled with high energy costs and sluggish manufacturing, the number may reveal more cracks in its recovery. On the other hand, France, with a more diversified economy, could show more resilience, though it’s still operating under similar inflationary pressures.
What’s interesting here is the broader narrative being spun by financial media. If these numbers come in weaker than expected, expect headlines that focus on "Europe’s economic fragility" or "slow growth in the Eurozone." This narrative could lead to a temporary sell-off in the EURUSD, pushing it toward 1.0750. However, this view is often incomplete, as it tends to overlook the fact that some sectors within the Eurozone remain robust. A positive surprise might shift the narrative to focus on "Eurozone resilience" and could drive EURUSD back to 1.0900 or higher, especially if bond yields start to rise.
March 24: Eurozone HCOB Composite PMI - 09:00 GMT
The Eurozone’s Composite PMI will provide a snapshot of the overall business climate in the region. With expectations set near the neutral 50 mark, anything above this would indicate modest expansion, while anything below signals contraction. Given the ongoing challenges of inflation and the ECB’s hawkish stance, the market may already be factoring in a slight slowdown.
Here’s where the media’s agenda comes into play. If the PMI falls short of expectations, the narrative will likely blame “energy price fluctuations” or “geopolitical instability,” avoiding a deeper examination of the ECB’s policy missteps. This narrative is designed to avoid questioning the effectiveness of the ECB’s rate hikes, even though they’ve faced criticism for potentially stalling economic growth. A negative surprise could weigh on EURUSD, pushing it back toward 1.0750, but a positive print could bring an uptick, with EURUSD testing 1.0900, as traders react to a narrative of "economic resilience" in the face of adversity.
March 24: UK Flash Manufacturing PMI - 09:30 GMT
The UK manufacturing sector is expected to show continued contraction, with the PMI forecasted around 48-49. This points to a weaker-than-expected performance, which aligns with broader concerns around the UK's post-Brexit recovery, high inflation, and supply chain issues. The Bank of England’s aggressive rate hikes have had limited impact on curbing inflation, and the resulting squeeze on the consumer has contributed to this slowdown.
Here’s where the media’s framing could mislead traders: if the PMI comes in weaker than expected, the narrative will likely emphasize “Brexit’s ongoing impact” or “global inflationary pressures,” without addressing the underlying issues, such as fiscal mismanagement and the lack of effective government response to inflation. A reading below 48 could send GBPUSD down to 1.2150, but if the data is better than expected, we could see a short-term rally toward 1.2350. However, keep in mind that this may be short-lived as broader economic challenges persist.
March 24: US S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Flash - 13:45 GMT
The US is expected to show a neutral print for its manufacturing sector, with the PMI forecasted around 50. The numbers should give traders some clarity on the resilience of the US economy, which has faced headwinds from rising interest rates and higher borrowing costs.
Financial news outlets love to spin a "Goldilocks" narrative when the US economy shows signs of stability. If the PMI comes in slightly above expectations, expect the media to describe the US economy as "healthy" and able to withstand the Fed’s tightening policy. This narrative might cause USDJPY to spike above 135.50, as traders expect the Fed to continue its tightening cycle. On the other hand, a disappointment in the PMI could be framed as a "temporary dip," leading to a short-term pullback in USDJPY toward 134.00.
March 25: UK Car Registration - 05:00 GMT
Car registration numbers rarely move markets, but they’ll still be framed as an important sign of consumer confidence in the UK. A slight uptick in car registrations could be used to suggest that consumer demand is returning, though this overlooks the broader issues plaguing the UK economy. The mainstream narrative will likely focus on “resilient UK consumer demand,” which could lead traders to buy into short-term rallies in GBPUSD.
However, it’s important to remember that this is just one data point in a much bigger picture. Even if car registrations improve, there’s little indication that the UK’s broader economic issues—rising costs, sluggish growth, and high inflation—are going away. If the data beats expectations, GBPUSD might test 1.2300, but the rally could quickly fade as traders focus on more pressing macroeconomic concerns.
March 25: Germany Ifo Business Climate - 09:00 GMT
The Germany Ifo Business Climate index is always an important indicator for gauging business sentiment in Europe’s largest economy. This month, the market is expecting a stable reading, but recent geopolitical tensions and energy cost concerns could weigh heavily on business confidence.
Media narratives are likely to focus on "geopolitical instability" or "global supply chain disruptions," conveniently ignoring the structural weaknesses within Germany’s own industrial sector. If the Ifo index disappoints, expect EURUSD to dip toward 1.0750. However, a surprise improvement may signal resilience, and we could see EURUSD push back toward 1.0850. Be cautious. As the media may try to frame this as "temporary setbacks" caused by external factors, while glossing over Germany's broader economic challenges.
Conclusion
As we approach this week’s critical economic data releases, it’s important to stay vigilant and adapt to changing market conditions on the fly. If you’re unsure about the impact of the upcoming PMI reports or other key events, take the time to evaluate the signals carefully before making any trading decisions. When in doubt, use a risk-free demo account to test your strategies and theories, allowing you to practice without putting your real capital at risk.
To stay ahead of market moves, download the Exness trading app. Whether you’re tracking PMI reports or reacting to unexpected market shifts, the app ensures you get real-time updates, keeping you in the loop no matter where you are.
For more comprehensive coverage of the latest economic news, calendar reports, and expert analyses that help you stay informed and anticipate the next market move, make sure to bookmark the Exness blog homepage. It’s your go-to source for timely insights to guide your trading decisions this week and beyond.
This is not investment advice. Past performance is not an indication of future results. Your capital is at risk, please trade responsibly.
Author:
Paul Reid
Paul Reid is a financial journalist dedicated to uncovering hidden fundamental connections that can give traders an advantage. Focusing primarily on the stock market, Paul's instincts for identifying major company shifts is well established from following the financial markets for over a decade.